reshaped China’s seafood sector. One of the hardest-hit products has been tilapia. In key farming regions like Maoming, once-busy processing plants sat idle and export volumes plunged. According to Reuters, one in ten tilapia farmers in the area was at risk of losing their livelihood.
Faced with the fallout, Chinese seafood exporters turned to alternative markets in Southeast Asia and Africa. Major companies such as Guolian Aquatic and Guangdong Evergreen refocused their efforts on Indonesia and other regional partners, aligning with China’s broader strategy to diversify trade relationships (Food Business Africa).
Despite this pivot, pricing for many Chinese seafood products remained relatively flat in recent years. Exporters, trapped in a high-tariff environment, operated under tight margins with little room to maneuver.
The 90-Day Tariff Truce: A Sudden Spike
Everything changed in May 2025 when the U.S. and China announced a 90-day tariff suspension. Under this agreement, tariffs on Chinese goods were temporarily reduced from 145% to 30%, while Chinese tariffs on U.S. products dropped from 125% to 10% (Business Insider, Indiatimes).
The reaction was immediate. Buyers rushed to Chinese factories to lock in purchases before the tariff pause ends. Prices for seafood products, including tilapia, vannamei shrimp, and squid, soared almost overnight. For many processors, the demand surge offered a much-needed cash flow boost.
However, this sudden spike in orders may be masking deeper structural risks.
Supply Chain Strains and Future Shortages
While the 90-day truce offers temporary relief, raw material suppliers are warning of a looming problem: a shortage of fish.
Due to the prolonged trade uncertainty and suppressed market prices, many aquaculture farms reduced the stocking of juvenile fish. As one industry source noted, “Because of weak demand over the past year, baby fish are being raised at a significantly lower rate.” If this trend continues, raw material shortages could hit the market within five to six months—just as the effects of the tariff pause wear off.
This creates a challenging outlook. If tariffs are reinstated after the 90-day window and raw material supply tightens, exporters may face a double hit: rising production costs and reduced global competitiveness.
Strategic Shifts Ahead
As noted by analysts at Rabobank and the Wall Street Journal, the Chinese seafood industry now stands at a crossroads. The next steps will likely include:
Market Diversification: Continued expansion into non-Western markets like Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa remains crucial.
- Supply Chain Resilience: Some companies may relocate processing to neighboring countries with more favorable trade terms.
- Boosting Domestic Demand: Strengthening seafood consumption within China could offer a buffer against external shocks.
- Policy Engagement: Long-term stability hinges on diplomatic negotiations to reduce or eliminate punitive tariffs altogether.
Conclusion: A Narrow Window of Opportunity
The 90-day tariff suspension provides temporary breathing room, but long-term success will depend on how the industry uses this window. While the short-term price surge has revived activity, the underlying supply chain challenges and policy uncertainties remain.
For now, Chinese seafood exporters are riding a wave of renewed demand. But as the sector knows all too well, calm waters rarely last—and preparation today could determine who stays afloat tomorrow